A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
